Succession Symphony: Decoding the Propaganda Orchestra and Its Hidden Conductor in Iran’s Power Struggle

“In succession wars, victory is not won on the battlefield, but in the minds of the elites.” Nowhere is this more evident than in Iran’s current contest to shape the post-Khamenei era. A seemingly spontaneous wave of political chatter anointing former President Hassan Rouhani as the “only logical option” to lead after Ayatollah Khamenei is, in fact, anything but organic. It is a coordinated two-front campaign – a symphony of succession – designed to engineer elite consensus and propel Rouhani to the top. The first movement was an informational onslaught that shook the very prestige of the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), creating a crisis of confidence. The second movement is an ongoing propaganda orchestra conducted by Rouhani’s allies to capitalize on that crisis and recast him as the savior of the Islamic Republic. These two fronts share one strategic goal: to orchestrate elite perceptions and impose Rouhani as the next Supreme Leader.

Creating Crisis – The First Shot with an Informational Weapon

The stage was set with a sudden crisis that struck like a psychological shockwave through Iran’s establishment. In mid-June, a brief but intense conflict – quickly dubbed the “12-Day War” – erupted between Iran and Israel, culminating in a fragile ceasefire on June 24. A report by the Turkish National Intelligence Academy (MİT Akademisi) analyzed this conflict and its fallout, delivering an alarming verdict. The 12-day confrontation not only caused military damage; it dealt a severe reputational blow to Iran’s security elite. Multiple IRGC commanders, including Major General Hossein Salami, were killed amid Israel’s targeted strikes[1], exposing gaps in Iran’s defenses and intelligence. The war forced Ayatollah Khamenei to retreat to a bunker and effectively handed the reins to the military – a move that briefly created a quasi-“martial law” atmosphere in Tehran[2]. But the IRGC proved unable to maintain cohesion under fire: Israeli cyber and espionage penetrations sowed distrust, and the Guard’s own sprawling economic patronage networks bred perceptions of corruption and mafia-like fragmentation[2]. In essence, the war’s outcome reinforced a dangerous narrative: that the current Revolutionary Guard leadership is incapable of managing the country’s survival in crisis, putting the entire regime in peril. This sense of strategic vacuum – a system in danger with no competent guardian – was the first shot fired in the succession struggle, and it landed squarely in the psyche of Iran’s ruling class[3], [4].

From the moment the guns fell silent, a battle to interpret the crisis began. Hardliners attempted to rally around a wartime patriotism – painting the near-disaster as proof that only a security-first approach could save Iran. Yet their narrative rang hollow given the IRGC’s visible lapses. Instead, rival voices seized the opportunity to undermine the Guards. The leaked MİT report (circulated via Al Jazeera and regional outlets) became their ammunition[5], [6]. Its stark assessment of Iran’s vulnerabilities – from failure to stop missile strikes to high-profile assassinations of Iranian generals – delivered a stinging implication: if the IRGC and its allies cannot even protect themselves, how can they protect the system or lead the nation? Such messaging struck at the heart of a key succession contender: the IRGC-backed camp associated with Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Mojtaba, often rumored as a possible successor, draws his power from the security apparatus. The 12-Day War’s aftermath suddenly cast that apparatus in a light of incompetence. Some analysts even suggest that certain insiders deliberately leveraged this crisis to sabotage Mojtaba’s chances. In one assessment, the rapid spread of rumors (later denied) that Ayatollah Khamenei had transferred power to Mojtaba was “largely meant to destroy [Mojtaba’s] image among the security and Revolutionary Guard forces” – a psychological operation to discredit the once-heir-apparent[7]. Whether by design or coincidence, the first front of this succession war – the creation of crisis – had opened a leadership vacuum. And into that vacuum, a second movement swiftly entered: the making of a savior.

Introducing the “Savior” – Entry of the Propaganda Orchestra

No sooner had the dust settled from the 12-Day War than an apparently spontaneous chorus of voices began humming the same tune: Iran’s only way forward was the “moderate” ex-president, Hassan Rouhani. This was no random refrain; it was an orchestrated propaganda campaign moving in concert across media platforms. Think of it as an “orchestra” with many sections and players, all following the same score. Its conductors and arrangers? Rouhani’s close allies and boosters, operating both inside and outside Iran.

Who are the musicians in this symphony? The ensemble spans former officials from Rouhani’s administration, reform-leaning journalists, Tehran’s political pundits, exiled analysts, and even some “gray” figures within the regime who quietly prefer Rouhani. For example, ex-ministers and advisors from the Rouhani era have resurfaced on Persian-language satellite channels and Clubhouse panels, extolling his crisis management skills. Seasoned journalists from reformist dailies pen op-eds subtly positioning Rouhani as the wise elder statesman Iran needs. Overseas, Western media commentators pick up the theme, noting that Rouhani’s “pragmatism” might restore stability. Even within regime circles, whispers point out that Rouhani – a mid-ranking cleric with revolutionary credentials – could be a unifying choice acceptable to both the establishment and the disaffected public.

Where is this orchestra performing? Everywhere the Iranian elite turn their eyes and ears. On social media, Twitter and Instagram accounts (some anonymous, suspected to be run by Rouhani’s media team) constantly repeat talking points about his leadership. In private forums, the invite-only Clubhouse rooms frequented by Iranian journalists and activists, pro-Rouhani narratives have curiously dominated post-war discussion sessions. In traditional media, outlets outside Iran – BBC Persian, Iran International, etc. – give disproportionate airtime to analyses that conclude Rouhani is the only figure capable of navigating sanctions and international crises. Even inside Iran’s corridors, regime insiders report a surge in behind-closed-doors lobbying: former President Khatami’s circle, certain business magnates, and clerics close to the late Rafsanjani are said to be quietly promoting Rouhani as the regime’s lifeboat. In short, the propaganda orchestra’s stage has no physical boundaries; it spans from Tehran to London to cyberspace.

Crucially, this media onslaught did not arise in a vacuum – it was cued by Rouhani’s own subtle signals. While Rouhani himself maintained a Sphinx-like silence publicly, he gave a few carefully crafted comments that served as a green light to his supporters. Notably, in a statement timed just after the war’s ceasefire, Rouhani struck a statesmanlike tone, declaring that the “crisis must build an agenda to correct our course and rebuild the foundations of governance.” This was a loaded message: a tacit criticism of the current military-heavy leadership and a hint that he had a plan to save the nation. As observers noted, Rouhani appeared to be “presenting himself as a candidate” for supreme leadership, implicitly offering to rescue Iran from isolation by mending ties with the West[4]. The propaganda orchestra took its cue from these hints and amplified them tenfold.

Decoding the Notes – Key Messages of the Propaganda Campaign

At the heart of this campaign is a set of repeating messages – the “notes” being played over and over until they stick in the collective mind. Each message addresses a specific anxiety raised by the leadership crisis, and each is carefully designed as a psychological operation to shape perceptions:

• “Experience” – Only Rouhani has the proven experience to manage existential crises. This refrain emphasizes Rouhani’s eight years as president, during which he dealt with sanctions, a volatile economy, and even a global pandemic. His supporters argue that in a time of peril, Iran needs a steady hand who has “been there before.” By extolling Rouhani’s crisis management chops, they implicitly undermine other contenders as untested or incompetent. The obvious target here is Mojtaba Khamenei – none of whom have held top executive office. “Rouhani guided Iran through the toughest sanctions storm and prevented economic free-fall,” they remind us[8]. The subtext: others would run the ship of state aground. This message plays on elite fears that an inexperienced successor could spell disaster.
• “International Acceptance” – Rouhani is the only figure the West will engage with, capable of ending Iran’s isolation. Here, the orchestra leverages Rouhani’s signature achievement, the 2015 nuclear deal, as evidence of his unique ability to negotiate with great powers. The narrative warns that without Rouhani, Iran faces permanent pariah status, economic collapse, even war. “The world trusts Rouhani – he can lift the isolation and save our economy,” goes the claim. Indeed, foreign analysts have noted that Rouhani seems to hope he can “break the stalemate with the West” and restore Iran’s global standing[4]. By amplifying this, the propaganda aims to scare Iran’s elite: stick with a hardliner successor and brace for more sanctions and conflict, or back Rouhani and get reprieve. It’s a classic fear appeal, painting Rouhani as the only bridge to the international community.
• “Principled Pragmatist” – Rouhani isn’t a liberal reformer out to undermine the system; he’s a conservative pragmatist who will preserve the regime rationally. This talking point is tailored for the regime’s inner circle. Many in the hardline camp distrust “reformist” figures, fearing they might compromise the revolutionary ideology. So Rouhani’s promoters recast him not as a reformist at all, but as a loyalist with sense. They remind audiences that Rouhani is a mid-ranking cleric, a war-time National Security Council veteran, and was Khamenei’s own representative on that council for 25 years[9]. “Rouhani is a regime insider, loyal to the establishment – a bridge between hardliners and reformists, not a subversive,” as one analysis put it[10]. The goal is to assure the Supreme Leader’s camp that Rouhani would protect the system (nezam) from collapse, not dismantle it. By emphasizing his principlist credentials, the campaign seeks to win over Iran’s security and clerical elites who might otherwise resist Rouhani.
• “Inevitable Savior” – Like him or not, Rouhani is the only option to prevent civil war or state collapse. This is the crescendo of the symphony – a message aimed to leave no alternative in the listener’s mind. It posits a binary choice: either Rouhani leads a transition and averts disaster, or Iran faces chaos. In private conversations among elite circles, one hears dire questions: “If not Rouhani, who can hold the country together? Who else can both satisfy the protesters and keep the Revolutionary Guard at bay?” By creating a sense of dead-end inevitability, the propaganda drives toward a conclusion that Rouhani must be accepted as a matter of survival. This theme exploits the post-war atmosphere of crisis, building on fears of instability. Notably, even figures who otherwise oppose Rouhani have conceded that he might be the “least bad” choice to avoid bloodshed. It’s a psychological squeeze play – a narrative of national emergency that paints Rouhani as the sole lifeline.

Taken together, these messages form a sophisticated psychological operation. Each note is calculated to hit an emotional chord with a different segment of Iran’s power structure – the Revolutionary Guard commanders, the senior ayatollahs, the technocrats, the business elites, the urban middle class. It’s a multi-layered persuasion campaign dressed as political debate. But to truly grasp how engineered this symphony is, one must examine how each “note” corresponds to an action by Rouhani’s camp and a reaction in the wider power struggle:

Identifying the Hidden Conductor – Is Rouhani Pulling the Strings?

All evidence points to a carefully synchronized scheme, which begs the question: is this coordination accidental or directed? The answer becomes clearer upon scrutinizing Rouhani’s own behavior. Officially, Hassan Rouhani has maintained a low profile since leaving office in 2021 – no open campaigning for power, no direct confrontation with the regime’s organs. But in the world of Iranian politics, silence can speak volumes. Rouhani’s muted public stance amid this propaganda push is in fact a sign of tacit leadership. He has allowed his allies to make the case for him, while avoiding fingerprints on the campaign. This “conducting from afar” is a deliberate strategy to avoid backlash. As a former insider noted, Rouhani learned from past reformist failures that open ambition invites swift suppression[16], [10]. Instead, he offers subtle nods – a cryptic quote here, a meeting with a senior cleric there – and his network takes the hint and amplifies it. It is a textbook example of leading from behind.

Meanwhile, more direct clues of Rouhani’s involvement have leaked out. A recent interview with a reformist politician, Ali Soufi, revealed that Rouhani’s inner circle had been planning for his leadership bid for years. “Rouhani’s entourage considered him a candidate to succeed the Leader, and acted accordingly – they felt he no longer needed popular votes but rather the rival faction’s blessing to reach that goal,” Soufi disclosed[17]. In other words, during Rouhani’s presidency, his team was already laying a roadmap for him to ascend to Supreme Leader, courting conservative power centers even as they distanced themselves from the reformist base. This astonishing revelation connects the dots: those same insiders are likely the ones orchestrating today’s two-front war. Rouhani’s former chief of staff, Mahmoud Vaezi, and his intelligence minister, Mahmoud Alavi, for instance, are rumored to be among the behind-the-scenes conductors – leveraging their deep connections to quietly steer the propaganda campaign in Rouhani’s favor.

Thus, the “propaganda orchestra” is not playing in isolation. It follows the baton movements of a hidden conductor: Hassan Rouhani himself. Every time Rouhani stays mum as his allies praise him, it’s a green light. Every time he issues an ambiguous statement about “national unity” or “learning from the war,” it’s immediately echoed by dozens of sympathetic voices in media, indicating coordination. The harmony is too perfect to be coincidence. In Iran’s opaque political theatre, Rouhani is practicing plausible deniability – letting others sing his praises so that he appears as the reluctant hero rising to an inevitable call. But make no mistake, he is listening to every note, ensuring the symphony stays on script.

Conclusion: A Dangerous Power Engineering Unfolds

What we are witnessing is nothing less than a complex engineering of power – a multi-layered campaign to manipulate perceptions, exploit crises, and pave the way for a particular outcome in the leadership succession. The crisis of the 12-Day War and the chorus of Rouhani-as-savior propaganda may have appeared unrelated at first, but they are two movements in the same symphony. The first created the frantic minor chords of alarm (Iran is in peril, the current path spells doom). The second introduced a hopeful major key (a savior is at hand, reasonable and experienced). Together, they compose a narrative crescendo aimed at carrying Hassan Rouhani to the apex of power.

For Iran’s political elite and informed public, the takeaway is a stark warning: be aware of the orchestra and its conductor. The spontaneous “debates” praising Rouhani are not merely free speech or independent analysis – they are likely the output of a well-rehearsed score arranged by his camp. Likewise, the sudden doubt cast on the IRGC’s capabilities, while grounded in some truth, is also a tool sharpened and wielded with political intent. Iran’s future is being decided not only in official meetings of the Assembly of Experts or behind the closed doors of Qom’s seminaries, but in the battleground of narratives and public psychology.

The succession of Ayatollah Khamenei, whenever it occurs, will be a defining moment in the Islamic Republic’s history. As that moment nears, the battle intensifies between those angling for the position. Rouhani and his supporters have shown they are willing to play one of the most dangerous games of all – undermining the very security establishment of their country and stoking a leadership crisis, in order to present themselves as the solution. It is a high-risk gambit: one that could just as easily destabilize the system as save it. Whether or not Rouhani ultimately succeeds in being imposed as the next Supreme Leader, the “succession symphony” he and his allies have composed will have long-lasting effects. It has further eroded trust within the regime’s factions, emboldened rival claimants to counter-mobilize, and alerted a wary public to the elite’s machinations.

In the end, Iran’s future might be determined less by missiles and votes, and more by tweets, leaks, and whispered Clubhouse chats. The war for the mind of the elite is underway, and its outcome may well decide who sits on the throne of Tehran next. As the saying goes, battles are won before they are fought – in this case, in the information space. The Iranian elite and people should keep their eyes open to the man behind the curtain, conducting an orchestra that plays a tune of inevitability. They are hearing a masterpiece of political propaganda in real-time. Whether they choose to dance to it or not will shape the destiny of the Islamic Republic after Khamenei.

منابع

1. Millî İstihbarat Akademisi (ترکیه), “12 GÜN SAVAŞI VE TÜRKİYE İÇİN DERSLER” (گزارش پژوهشی جنگ ۱۲ روزه ایران و اسرائیل), اوت 2025 – نقل قول از گزارش در ایرنا: «در جریان این درگیری نظامی ۱۲ روزه… ایران شماری از فرماندهان ارشد خود از جمله… حسین سلامی را از دست داد.» IRNA News.
2. حسین علیزاده (دیپلمات پیشین), “پیامدهای جنگ دوازده‌روزه و پویش‌های جانشینی در ایران”, تحلیل ایران‌وایر, ۲۰۲۵ – در این تحلیل آمده است: «…گزارش‌های مربوط به انتقال قدرت به مجتبی تا حد زیادی با هدف تخریب چهره او در میان نیروهای امنیتی و انقلابی بود.» IranWire.
3. Ali Soufi, عضو شورای هماهنگی جبهه اصلاحات, مصاحبه با تابناک (۳۱ جولای ۲۰۲۵) – «اطرافیان آقای روحانی بحث جانشین رهبری را برای او در نظر داشتند… این برداشت صورت گرفته بود که دیگر روحانی احتیاجی به رای مردم ندارد و همراهی جناح رقیب را برای رسیدن به این هدف لازم داشت.» Tabnak.
4. Parisa Hafezi, “NEWSMAKER: Rouhani stokes desire for change, but can he deliver?” Reuters (May 20, 2017) – quoting an Iranian official: “Rouhani is a regime insider… not a reformist but a bridge between hardliners and reformists.” Reuters.
5. Euronews (به نقل از The Economist), “خامنه‌ای در سایه و جدال جانشینی پس از جنگ ۱۲ روزه”, ۳۱ جولای ۲۰۲۵ – گزارش اکونومیست درباره تشدید رقابت جانشینی پس از جنگ: «به نظر می‌رسد روحانی خود را گزینه جانشینی می‌داند و امیدوار است انزوای نظام را پایان دهد… او در بیانیه‌ای به مناسبت آتش‌بس گفت: ‘این بحران باید دستور کاری برای تصحیح مسیر و بازسازی بنیادهای حکمرانی بسازد.’» Euronews Persian.
6. آفتاب‌نیوز, “دولت روحانی با مدیریت بحران، کشور را از سقوط نجات داد”, ۱۴ اردیبهشت ۱۳۹۶ – نقل قول: «دولت دکتر روحانی بحران را مدیریت کرد و وضعیت در حال سقوط کشور را به حالت ثبات رساند.» Aftab News.
7. Asr-Iran, “پس از جنگ 12 روزه؛ بازسازی همبستگی یا مصادرۀ وحدت ملی؟”, مرداد ۱۴۰۴ – گزارشی از واکنش‌های داخلی پس از جنگ؛ اشاره به انتشار تصویری جنجالی از روحانی و ظریف با عبارت «عجیب نیست اسرائیل فرماندهان سپاه را ترور کرد، اما به این‌ها کاری ندارد؟» که شائبه حذف رقیبان را مطرح می‌کرد. Asr-Iran.
8. مشرق نیوز, “سردار فدوی: دشمنان در جنگ ۱۲ روزه به شکست خود اذعان کردند”, ۳۰ تیر ۱۴۰۴ – واکنش جانشین فرمانده سپاه به ادعاهای شکست سپاه در جنگ اخیر، تأکید بر پیروزی جمهوری اسلامی و ناکامی دشمن. Mehr News.
9. Parisa Hafezi, “NEWSMAKER: Rouhani stokes desire for change, but can he deliver?” Reuters (May 20, 2017) – quoting an Iranian official: “Rouhani is a regime insider… not a reformist but a bridge between hardliners and reformists.” Reuters.
10. Parisa Hafezi, “NEWSMAKER: Rouhani stokes desire for change, but can he deliver?” Reuters (May 20, 2017) – quoting an Iranian official: “Rouhani is a regime insider… not a reformist but a bridge between hardliners and reformists.” Reuters.
11. مشرق نیوز, “سردار فدوی: دشمنان در جنگ ۱۲ روزه به شکست خود اذعان کردند”, ۳۰ تیر ۱۴۰۴ – واکنش جانشین فرمانده سپاه به ادعاهای شکست سپاه در جنگ اخیر، تأکید بر پیروزی جمهوری اسلامی و ناکامی دشمن. Mehr News.
12. روزنامه جوان, “تمرکز دولت روحانی به ارتباط با غرب کشور را گرفتار کرد”, – نقد سیاست خارجی دولت روحانی و تأثیر آن بر اقتصاد. Javan Online.
13. پست اینستاگرام (تحلیلگر اصولگرا), اشاره به پرونده‌های متعدد علیه روحانی و تلاش برای بازگشت به قدرت. Instagram.
14. امواج.مدیا, “ابراز تأسف روحانی از کوچک‌شدن دایره‌ی قدرت در ایران” – گزارش از انتقاد روحانی به ردصلاحیت‌ها. Amwaj.media.
15. Ali Soufi, عضو شورای هماهنگی جبهه اصلاحات, مصاحبه با تابناک (۳۱ جولای ۲۰۲۵) – «اطرافیان آقای روحانی بحث جانشین رهبری را برای او در نظر داشتند… این برداشت صورت گرفته بود که دیگر روحانی احتیاجی به رای مردم ندارد و همراهی جناح رقیب را برای رسیدن به این هدف لازم داشت.» Tabnak.
16. Parisa Hafezi, “NEWSMAKER: Rouhani stokes desire for change, but can he deliver?” Reuters (May 20, 2017) – quoting an Iranian official: “Rouhani is a regime insider… not a reformist but a bridge between hardliners and reformists.” Reuters.
17. Ali Soufi, عضو شورای هماهنگی جبهه اصلاحات, مصاحبه با تابناک (۳۱ جولای ۲۰۲۵) – «اطرافیان آقای روحانی بحث جانشین رهبری را برای او در نظر داشتند… این برداشت صورت گرفته بود که دیگر روحانی احتیاجی به رای مردم ندارد و همراهی جناح رقیب را برای رسیدن به این هدف لازم داشت.» Tabnak.

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